Fourth Quarter Grain Inspections Below Last Year

This article has been reprinted from the Feb. 7 USDA Grain Transportation Report.

According to the Grain Inspection, Packers, and Stockyards Administration (GIPSA), fourth quarter inspections of grain (wheat, corn, and soybeans) in 2018 shipped from major U.S. ports reached 32.8 million metric tons (mmt)(see figure 1).

Total inspections of grain were 14 percent below the same quarter last year and 20 percent below the 5-year average.

Grain inspections decreased in part due to a significant drop in inspections of soybeans.

Soybean exports to China, normally the leading buyer of U.S. soybeans, reached only 8.2 mmt, compared to 32.1 mmt last year.

Inspections of corn, however increased substantially from year-to-year, and wheat inspections increased slightly for the same period.

Grain inspections decreased also due to lower shipments to Asia and Latin America.

Transportation demand during the fourth quarter was strong as expected considering a large fall harvest.

U.S. Gulf grain inspections in the fourth quarter reached 18.6 mmt, down 11 percent from last year and 23 percent below the 5-year average, according to GIPSA (see figure 1).

Inspections of corn increased notably from last year and were the highest since 2007.

However, inspections of soybeans shipped from U.S. Gulf, dropped 36 percent because of a significant drop in shipments to China.

Wheat inspections were up slightly during the quarter. During the fourth quarter, rail deliveries of grain to the U.S. Gulf decreased significantly from last year, but barge grain movements on the Mississippi River were up slightly from last year.

Ocean freight rates, for shipping grain through the Gulf, were above the third and fourth quarters last year due in part to strong vessel activity.

Pacific Northwest (PNW) grain inspections reached 8.6 mmt during the fourth quarter, 16 percent below last year and 22 percent below the 5-year average.

Fourth quarter PNW corn inspections reached a record high as shipments to Asia rebounded. PNW soybean inspections dropped 83 percent for the same period.

Wheat inspections in the PNW increased 30 percent, reaching 3.5 mmt as demand from Asia rebounded.

Fourth quarter PNW ocean freight rates for shipping grain from the PNW were above the third and fourth quarters last year due to steady demand for grain and increased vessel activity.

Atlantic-Great Lakes grain inspections reached 1.2 mmt, down 31 percent from last year and 48 percent below the 5-year average.

Corn and soybean inspections decreased from last year, but wheat inspections in the Atlantic-Great Lakes increased notably from last year; the highest since 2010.

Interior grain inspections reached 4 mmt, down 2 percent from last year but 12 percent above the 5-year average.

Fourth quarter interior wheat inspections increased 34 percent from last year, as shipments to Mexico increased notably.

Interior inspections of corn and soybeans were down from last year.

Corn and Wheat Inspections Up, Soybeans Down

Total inspections of corn reached 13.5 mmt during the fourth quarter, up 82 percent from last year and 56 percent above the 5-year average (see figure 2).

PNW corn inspections reached a record 3.88 mmt, up significantly from last year, due to increased demand from Asia.

U.S. Gulf corn inspections reached 7.5 mmt, up 61 percent from last year and 29 percent above the 5-year average.

Atlantic-Great Lakes corn inspections reached .035 mmt, down 7 percent from last year, and the lowest since 2012.

Interior corn inspections were down 2 percent from last year.

Total corn exports for the 2018/19 marketing year are projected to increase slightly from 2018/19, according to the December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

Fourth quarter soybean inspections were the lowest (13.6 mmt) since 2008, due primarily to tariffs imposed on Chinese buyers of U.S soybeans.

Total soybean inspections were down 47 percent from last year (see figure 2).

Inspections of soybeans to Asia dropped 85 percent, from last year, during the fourth quarter.

U.S. Gulf soybean inspections dropped 36 percent from last year, to 9.5 mmt, and were 42 percent below average.

PNW soybean inspections reached only 1.3 mmt, 83 percent below last year and the lowest since 2000.

The Atlantic-Great Lakes soybean inspections totaled .579 mmt, down 62 percent from last year and 68 percent below the 5-year average.

Interior soybean inspections reached 1.7 mmt, down 8 percent from last year and 4 percent above the 5-year average.

According to USDA’S WASDE projectioins in December, soybean exports for the 2018/19 marketing year are expected to decrease 11 percent from last year.

Fourth quarter wheat inspections reached 5.8 mmt, up 25 percent from last year and 10 percent above the 5- year average (see figure 2).

Gulf wheat inspections reached 1.7 mmt, up 2 percent from the previous year.

PNW wheat inspections reached 3.5 mmt, up 30 percent from last year and 37 percent above the 5-year average.

Fourth quarter Atlantic-Great Lakes wheat inspections of .615 mmt increased 211 percent from last year.

Interior wheat inspections of .397 mmt increased 34 percent for the same period.

The December WASDE estimates report indicated total wheat exports for the 2018/19 marketing year are expected to increase 11 percent from the previous year.