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Grainnet Podcast Interview with Dr. Dan O'Brien, Kansas State University on USDA's September 28 reports.

Date Posted: September 28, 2012


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USDA provided some "September Surprises" on September 28 in the Quarterly Grain Stocks Report.

For corn, USDA reported 988 million bushels of corn on hand at the end of the last marketing year, a 12% drop from last year, which represents 2.16 billion in disappearance, compared to 2.54 billion a year earlier. This was a surprise, due to the early harvest that brought new crop supplies into the old crop year, and the 988 million number was well under the trade estimate of 1.126 billion bushels and was at the low end of the expected range. The 988 million is an eight year low for corn stocks in September.

For soybeans, there was also a “September Surprise," as the USDA revised its 2011 statistics, adding 37.5 million bushels to the production number that pushes it up to 3.094 billion. The result was a higher level of stocks on September 1, which were projected at 169 million bushels, a 21% drop from year earlier levels.

Mark a “September Surprise” for wheat as well, spurred by increased disappearance from wheat feeding, or at lease more than was expected. USDA’s Quarterly Stocks reports indicated disappearance of 908 million bushels in the June to August quarter, some 27% higher from the same period in 2011.

All of these developments are analyzed by Dr. Dan O'Brien, Marketing Specialist for Kansas State University. His analysis is about 12 minutes and includes comments on the market-neutral Small Grains Summary also released by USDA on September 28. He can be reached at: (785)462-6281.

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