Grainnet

KSU Mark Fowler's Report on U.S. Wheat Crop: Quality Returns to Near-Normal Levels in 2008

Quality of the 2008 U.S. hard red winter (HRW) and soft red winter (SRW) crops appears to have returned to relatively normal levels compared to previous years.

That was the assessment delivered Aug. 1 by Mark Fowler, director of technical services for the International Grains Program at Kansas State University (KSU), Manhattan (785-532-1189).

He spoke at a joint meeting of the Central and Wheat State districts of the International Association of Operative Millers (IAOM) in Lake of the Ozarks, MO.

Here is a summary of his comments.

HRW Crop Preliminary results show the HRW crop in 2008 returning close to the five-year average on protein levels at about 12.3%. The five-year average is around 12.4%.

That follows two years of extremes.

The 2006 crop was ravaged by drought but averaged a high 13.6% on protein, illustrating the often inverse relationship between yield and protein.

In 2007, the opposite occurred. Yields in the HRW-growing areas recovered sharply, but protein levels were low, not much more than 11.5%.

An exception in 2008 has been in Texas and Oklahoma, where protein levels have been lower than in 2007.

Another exception has been somewhat higher-than-normal levels of DON or vomitoxin in the 2008 HRW crop in areas farther west than this mycotoxin commonly is seen.

DON develops when the head scab fungus infects wheat.

A relatively late harvest under damp conditions contributed to the development of DON, which was averaging 15 to 16 ppm in Kansas, with some areas of the state reporting up to 30 ppm.

Millers using wheat from affected areas are advised to test for DON, but overall, it’s not a major problem nationwide.

SRW Crop Relatively little DON has been seen, meanwhile, in the 2008 SRW crop, which is grown across the eastern half of the United States.

It’s been an average year for protein levels on SRW, running about 9.8% compared with 10.3% in 2007.

However, the overall crop is larger than has been seen in a number of years.

With its July production prediction of 607.6 million bushels, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has forecast a crop nearly double the size of the 2007 crop, which was roughly 350 million bushels.

Supply and Demand Factors in the Global Wheat Market With beginning stocks worldwide at the lowest level since 1978, even if projected production increases materialize, the 2008-09 marketing year still would see the second lowest stocks-to-use ratio in history.

U.S. ending stocks for the year are projected to double over 2007-08.

Stocks in the six largest exporting countries, including those bordering the Black Sea, are expected to end the year up 43% at 12 MMT over 2007-08.

In spite of these increases, U.S. farmgate prices for wheat are forecast to continue rising, in a range of $6.75 to $8.25 per bushel ($248 to $303 per metric ton), compared to an average farmgate price of $6.48 per bushel ($238 per metric ton) in 2007-08.

These prices are due to continued strong and growing demand for wheat, not due to ethanol demand. Consumption has exceeded worldwide production in six of the last eight years.