Grainnet

USDA November World Ag Supply/Demand Estimates Report

WHEAT: The U.S. wheat supply and use projections are mostly unchanged this month with imports raised 5 million bushels reflecting the strong pace of hard red spring wheat shipments from Canada.

With other categories of use unchanged, ending stocks for 2007/08 are projected 5 million bushels higher at 312 million.

The projected season-average farm price is narrowed 10 cents on each end of the range to $5.90 to $6.30 per bushel.

Global wheat production for 2007/08 is projected up 2.8 million tons this month reflecting higher output in Argentina, China, and Ethiopia, which more than offsets reductions in Australia and Brazil.

Production for Argentina is raised 1.0 million tons on higher harvested area and improved yield prospects with a continuation of excellent growing season weather since mid- September.

hina production is increased 1.0 million tons reflecting recent government reports.

Production for Ethiopia is raised 1.0 million tons on higher yields with good growing season weather.

Australia production is cut 0.5 million tons as crop prospects continue to decline with drought persisting in key southeastern growing areas.

Recent rains during harvest may also have adversely affected grain quality and yields.

Brazil output is lowered 0.2 million tons based on an expected reduction in harvested area.

World imports for 2007/08 are lowered 0.4 million tons.

Imports for India are lowered 1.0 million tons with smaller reductions for South Korea, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka.

Partly offsetting are increases for Morocco, Azerbaijan, Brazil, Uzbekistan, and the United States.

Exports are nearly unchanged with Australia and EU-27 exports both reduced 0.5 million tons and Argentina raised 1.0 million tons.

World wheat consumption for 2007/08 is projected 1.3 million tons higher as increased production supports higher food use in some developing countries even as high prices and lower supplies elsewhere reduce world wheat feeding.

Higher production in Ethiopia, Sudan, and Nigeria, is expected to increase food use in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Wheat feeding, however, is lowered for Australia, Canada, EU-27, and South Korea.

With higher world beginning stocks and increased production, world ending stocks are projected 2.8 million tons higher than last month.

At 109.8 million tons, 2007/08 world ending stocks remain the lowest in 30 years.

COARSE GRAINS: Projected U.S. ending stocks of corn for 2007/08 are lowered 100 million bushels this month as lower production more than offsets reduced feed and residual use. Production is forecast at 13.2 billion bushels, down 150 million on lower yields.

Corn feed and residual use is lowered 50 million bushels reflecting the smaller crop and higher expected prices.

The season-average farm price is projected at $3.20 to $3.80 per bushel, up 30 cents on both ends of the range on strong cash prices that have continued to rise despite this year's record corn crop.

Sorghum production is raised 13 million bushels, but higher projected exports more than offset the increase in supplies leaving ending stocks down 2 million bushels.

Exports are raised 15 million bushels reflecting the pace of export shipments and sales and strong EU-27 demand for U.S. sorghum.

Barley exports are raised 25 million bushels based on current commitments and strong global demand for barley.

Barley imports are projected 5 million bushels higher.

Feed and residual use for barley is lowered 10 million bushels and food, seed, and industrial use is lowered 5 million bushels.

The sorghum season- average price is projected 30 cents higher on each end of the range to $3.00 to 3.60 per bushel.

The barley price projection is raised 35 cents on each end of the range to $3.55 to $4.15 per bushel.

The oats price is projected at $2.10 to $2.70 per bushel, up 10 cents on each end of the range.

World coarse grain supplies are projected 0.8 million tons higher this month as a small reduction in global corn output is more than offset by higher production for the other coarse grains.

Lower corn production in the United States and Nigeria is partly offset by increases for China, Ethiopia, EU-27, India, and Ukraine.

China corn production is raised 2.0 million tons this month reflecting higher harvested area as recent provincial reports indicate higher- than-expected planted area.

Corn production in EU-27 is raised 0.5 million tons mostly on increases for Italy and France.

Corn production for Ukraine is raised 0.5 million tons on higher expected yields reflected in early harvest results.

Sorghum production is raised for Mexico, Ethiopia, and Australia.

Barley production for Australia is lowered 0.7 million tons, but increases of 0.5 million tons for EU-27 and 0.3 million tons for Ethiopia are more than offsetting.

Global coarse grain imports and exports are both projected higher this month.

Imports are raised 0.7 million tons with the biggest increases for EU-27, Canada, and Japan.

Corn imports for Canada are raised 0.3 million tons as wheat feeding is reduced a like amount.

EU-27 imports of sorghum are increased 0.4 million tons as wheat feeding is also projected lower there.

Corn imports are raised 0.2 million for Japan supporting increases in feeding and other domestic uses.

Partly offsetting is a reduction in corn imports for South Korea.

Global coarse grain exports are raised 2.2 million tons with the biggest increase for the United States as sorghum and barley exports are raised.

Also raised are Argentina sorghum exports, EU-27 barley exports, India corn exports, and South Africa corn exports.

A 0.3-million-ton reduction in barley exports by Australia is partly offsetting.

World coarse grain ending stocks are nearly unchanged.

OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed ending stocks for 2007/08 are projected at 6.8 million tons, down 0.1 million from last month.

Total U.S. oilseed production is projected at 80.1 million tons, up 0.1 million tons due to higher cottonseed and peanut output.

Soybean production is forecast at 2.594 billion bushels, down 4 million bushels based on a lower soybean yield of 41.3 bushels per acre. Soybean ending stocks are down 5 million to 210 million bushels.

Soybean and product price forecasts are all raised this month.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2007/08 is projected at $8.50 to $9.50 per bushel, up 65 cents on both ends of the range, reflecting sharply higher cash and futures prices.

Soybean meal prices are projected at $235 to $265 per short ton, up $15 on both ends of the range.

Soybean oil prices are projected at 37.5 to 41.5 cents per pound, up 3 cents on both ends of the range.

Soybean oil prices at Decatur, IL, have recently exceeded 41.5 cents per pound and have increased almost 15 percent in the past month.

Global oilseed production for 2007/08 is projected at 390.4 million tons, down 1.6 million tons from last month.

Foreign production accounts for most of the change as reduced rapeseed and cottonseed production are only partly offset by increased sunflowerseed.

Foreign rapeseed production is reduced 1.1 million tons mainly due to lower production prospects for India.

Sharply lower rapeseed area is expected due to India's minimum- support price changes favoring wheat over rapeseed.

Rapeseed production is also projected 200,000 tons lower for Australia. Global cottonseed production is reduced mainly due to lower output for Pakistan where insect damage has reduced prospects for the cotton crop.

Sunflowerseed production is raised for Argentina due to increased area as producers respond to sharply higher prices for sunflowerseed relative to other crops.

Other changes include higher rapeseed and sunflowerseed production for EU-27, lower sunflowerseed production for Russia, increased soybean production for Paraguay, and reduced soybean production for China.

Global palm oil production for both 2006/07 and 2007/08 is projected higher due to increased output for Indonesia.

Global oilseed ending stocks for 2007/08 are reduced 1.8 million tons to 56.3 million tons mainly reflecting lower soybean stocks in Brazil and China.

Brazil stocks are reduced due to a projected increase in soybean crush for both 2006/07 and 2007/08.

Global oilseed stocks for 2007/08 are projected down 21 percent from 2006/07.

Global vegetable oil ending stocks are projected higher this month mainly due to increased palm oil stocks in Indonesia.