Grainnet

U.S. Winter Wheat Supply Up In Spite of Weather Challenges (Wheat Letter)

This article was reprinted with the permission of U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) from the June 14 Wheat Letter. The article was written by Joe Sowers, USW market analyst.

Washington, DC--The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates the new U.S. winter wheat crop will be about 24% larger than last year's harvest, boosted by an anticipated 51% increase in hard red winter (HRW) production.

Soft red winter (SRW) production is down from last year and white wheat production, including soft white (SW) and hard white (HW), is up by about 5%.

USDA's National Agriculture Statistics Service (NASS) updated its production estimate for 2007/08 winter wheat this week to include new data on the impact of the April freeze in the Southern Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley.

While the freeze hurt some HRW growers badly, total HRW production is expected to reach 28.0 million metric tons (MMT) this year, up from the 18.6 MMT crop slashed by drought last year.

That would be 24% higher than the five-year U.S. production average.

No estimate is yet available on the possible impact of unusual heavy rains that have delayed harvest in the Southern Plains.

Phyllis and Tom Stephens, who farm in Texas County, OK, report scattered showers are forecast through the end of this week, but hot, drier weather next week should speed things up.

Wheat grower Ron Suppes, in southwestern Kansas, says harvest will start in the next week or so.

"There will be some excellent wheat and there will be some disappointment," he reports.

The freeze took a big bite out of SRW production, now forecast to fall almost 13% to 9.3 MMT from 10.6 MMT - this after growers planted 13% more acres of SRW last fall.

In fact, growers did not even harvest more than 23% of the wheat planted in Missouri, 16% in Illinois, and 28% in Arkansas.

Total white wheat production is estimated at 6.5 MMT.

Winter-planted SW production is expected to increase by 3% over last year, reaching 5.9 MMT.

Timely rains in the SW region occurred after the survey and may increase yield potential.

U.S. growers planted the same number of HW acres as they did last season, but beneficial weather is expected to drive production of this emerging class up 15 thousand metric tons to 52 thousand metric tons.