This article has been reprinted from the Oct. 17 USDA Grain Transportation Report.
During the third quarter of 2019, inspections of grain (wheat, corn, and soybeans) for export from all U.S. ports reached 25.8 million metric tons (mmt), down 18 percent from the same time last year and 7 percent below the 5-year average (fig. 1).
Despite the drop in overall inspections of grain, soybean inspections reached an all-time high during the third quarter.
Wheat inspections were also up from last year during the third quarter, but the increases in wheat and soybean inspections could not offset the large drop in corn inspections.
Pacific Northwest (PNW) grain inspections decreased notably from the third quarter of 2018, due mainly to the sharp drop in corn inspections. U.S. Gulf grain inspections decreased despite increased soybean and wheat inspections.
Third-quarter grain inspections in the U.S. Gulf were 14.2 mmt, down 15 percent from last year (fig. 1) and 7 percent below the 5-year average.
The U.S. Gulf’s share (55 percent) of total grain exports were above last year, but other regional shares were mostly down.
Third-quarter rail deliveries of grain to the U.S. Gulf ports jumped 72 percent from last year, in part because of diverted traffic from the Mississippi River: a 20-percent drop in barge movements of grain through the Mississippi River locks was caused by navigational delays due to high water conditions.
Third-quarter PNW grain inspections reached 6.4 mmt, down 33 percent from last year (fig. 1) and 15 percent below the 5-year average, mainly because of an 85- percent drop in corn inspections.
Rail deliveries of grain to PNW ports were down as well during the third quarter, falling 27 percent from last year. PNW soybeans, however, reached a record high during the third quarter, but wheat fell 6 percent from last year.
Third-quarter grain inspections for the Atlantic-Great Lakes region reached .942 mmt, down 18 percent from last year and 10 percent below the 5-year average.
Third quarter corn inspections dropped significantly from last year for the region, and soybeans decreased slightly.
Atlantic-Great Lakes wheat inspections were down 11 percent from last year during the third quarter.
Third-quarter Interior inspections of grain reached a record 4.3 mmt, down slightly from last year and 30 percent above the 5-year average.
The Interior accounted for 17 percent of total third-quarter grain inspections.
Mexico accounted for 77 percent of total Interior grain inspections during the quarter, up from 72 percent last year.
Asia accounted for 22 percent of total Interior grain inspections.
Soybeans and wheat inspections in the Interior increased 11 and 27 percent, respectively, during the third quarter, but corn decreased 11 percent.
U.S. Interior corn inspected for export to Mexico during the third quarter was up 5 percent from last year, and soybean inspections in the Interior destined to Mexico increased 45 percent from last year.
Corn and Soybean Inspections
U.S. corn inspections reached 7.1 mmt, during the third quarter, down 57 percent from last year (fig. 2). U.S. corn exports were 48 percent below the 5-year average as export competition from abroad intensified.
Third-quarter PNW corn inspections reached only .720 mmt, the lowest since 2013 and down 85 percent from last year, due mainly to lower demand from Asia.
Third-quarter U.S. Gulf corn inspections totaled 4.54 mmt, down 52 percent from last year due to lower shipments to Asia and Latin America.
Third-quarter Interior corn inspections totaled 2 mmt, down 11 percent from last year. Interior corn inspected for export to Mexico was down 10 percent from last year during the third quarter.
Third-quarter inspections of corn in the Atlantic-Great Lakes region decreased 92 percent from last year, due mainly to a decrease in shipments to Africa.
Compared to last year, total third-quarter inspections of corn shipped to Asia, from all port regions, decreased 67 percent.
Also, overall U.S. third-quarter inspections of corn destined to Latin America decreased 38 percent from last year.
Third-quarter soybean inspections reached a record 12.2 mmt, up 26 percent from last year (fig. 2) and were 70 percent above the 5- year average.
Inspections of soybeans destined to China totaled 5.6 mmt during the third quarter, significantly above the same time last year.
China accounted for 46 percent of total U.S. soybean exports during the third quarter.
About 67 percent of U.S. third-quarter soybean exports were destined to Asia.
Third-quarter PNW soybean inspections reached a record 2.5 mmt, up 114 percent from last year.
Soybean inspections in the U.S. Gulf reached 7.4 mmt during the third quarter, up 17 percent from last year.
Interior soybean inspections reached a record 1.7 mmt, up 11 percent from last year.
Interior exports of soybeans to Mexico and Asia increased by 45 percent and 5 percent, respectively, over the third quarter 2018.
Third-quarter Atlantic-Great Lakes soybean inspections decreased 4 percent from last year.
Wheat Inspections
Inspections of wheat totaled 6.5 mmt during the third quarter, 20 percent above last year, but 8 percent below the 5-year average.
In the U.S. Gulf, third quarter wheat inspections were 95 percent above last year mainly because of increased exports to Africa and Latin America.
In the Interior, third-quarter wheat inspections were 40 percent above last year because of higher exports to Mexico.
Wheat inspections, however, were down 6 percent from last year in PNW and down 11 percent in the Atlantic-Great Lakes.
Third-quarter export inspections of wheat destined to Asia decreased 7 percent from last year, but wheat inspected for Latin American destinations increased 67 percent.
Market Outlook
According to the October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, exports of wheat and soybeans are expected to increase 2 percent from last year for the 2019/20 marketing year.
Corn exports, however, are projected to decrease 8 percent from last year.
Currently outstanding third-quarter export sales of wheat, corn, and soybeans are below the same time last year.
Also, currently there is a strong U.S. dollar, which usually slows U.S. grain exports.
Cumulative (shipped) export sales are up from last year for wheat and soybeans, but down for corn (see table 12 in “Grain Transportation Indicators”).