This week, United Soybean Board and the U.S. Soybean Export Council’s new Vice President of Market Intelligence Mac Marshall and R.J. O'Brien's Head of Market Insights Randall Mittelstaedt, among other USSEC leadership, presented an overview of the July 2020 WASDE Report.

USSEC is pleased to announce that it is initiating a monthly Global Webcast on the WASDE report and its potential implications for soybean markets.

Each monthly report will include an analysis of how the U.S. Department of Agriculture has updated the global supply and demand projections for soybeans, and also feature an invited market analyst to offer opinions on how the changes to the WASDE might impact soybean markets.

Included below are market observations prepared by Mac Marshall, which were presented at U.S. Soy’s WASDE Update on July 13:

Domestic

  • U.S. soy production was revised up by 10 million bu. from June to 4.135 billion bu. These adjustments correspond with the June 30 Acreage area estimate; however, there was no adjustment for yield projections (Note: these typically are not adjusted in July) – source: USDA
  • Old crop (MY 2019/20) carryout was revised up 35 million bu. and for new crop (MY 2020/21) increased crush partially offset higher production and carryin; MY 20/21 carryout revised up by 30 million bu. to 425 million bu. – source: USDA
  • Global demand pace is strong and world demand for MY 20/21 is projected at 363.6 MMT, up 4.35% from MY 19/20, which is the largest increase in both absolute and % terms since MY 16/17 MY – source USDA
  • China MY 19/20 imports were revised up by 2 MMT; as reference, the Chinese Ministry of Agricultural and Rural Affairs revised projected imports by 3 MMT – source USDA, Reuters

Exports

  • U.S. added 382,139 MT in new crop (MY 20/21) sales, including 192,000 MT to China – source USDA
  • Accumulated new crop sales to all destinations are up 166% compared to last season, driven by significant gains in sales to China. New crop sales to China (4.2 MMT to date) are the highest at this point in the season since MY 14/15 sales were being booked in July 2014 – source USDA
  • China noted on Friday that it predicted higher corn and soybean imports for MY 19/20 and is expected to increase purchases from the U.S. to fulfill the Phase 1 deal. The Ministry of Agricultural and Rural Affairs (MARA) raised its estimate MY 19/20 soybean imports to 94 million tons, up 3 MMT from the prior month estimate – source Reuters

Click here for a full recap on the July 2020 WASDE Report, and to watch U.S. Soy’s July global webcast, register here to access the recording.

In addition, save the date for our next U.S. Soy Update on the August 2020 WASDE Report, scheduled for August 13th at 7:00 a.m. CDT. Registration details will be posted on the USSEC Events page.