USDA Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade (Jan. 12): Dry Conditions in South America Drive Forecasts Down

Washington, DC — Global oilseed and product forecasts are down across the board this month as dry weather in South America significantly reduces soybean yield and production, the USDA says in its monthly Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade report released Wednesday (Jan. 12).

Global 2021/22 oilseed production is down more than 1% on lower soybean production in Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay, more than offsetting gains in India rapeseed and U.S. soybeans.

Global crush is down slightly as lower South America soybean processing is partially offset by higher India rapeseed crush.

Trade is down on lower soybean exports from Paraguay to Argentina and Brazil, as well as lower exports from South America to other major import markets like Egypt and Turkey.

Global ending stocks are down 6% on smaller soybean carryout in Brazil and Argentina.

Global production of protein meal is forecast down in tandem with crush.

Protein meal trade is down slightly, primarily on lower Argentina, U.S., and Paraguay soybean meal exports, more than offsetting higher India rapeseed meal exports.

Protein meal consumption is down marginally on lower global soybean and cottonseed meal use partially offset by higher rapeseed meal consumption.

Global ending stocks are down 3% on smaller soybean carryout in Brazil and Argentina.

Global vegetable oil production is down primarily on lower Malaysia palm oil production, with lower soybean oil and higher rapeseed oil production mostly offsetting.

Trade is down largely on lower Malaysia palm oil exports, and global consumption is down slightly due to lower palm oil imports and use in India, the European Union, and Iran more than offsetting gains in India rapeseed oil consumption.

Ending stocks are down on lower global palm oil and Russia sunflower seed oil carryout more than offsetting higher South America soybean oil and Iran sunflower seed oil stocks.

The projected U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans is up 50 cents to $12.60 per bushel.

To read the full report, click here.

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