Unofficial word from a reliable grain source today is that early corn yields in east central Illinois may be in the 150 bu. range. That would be sufficient for 1980 when the US produced 5 billion bushels per year, with enough left over for a few hundred million bushels to be exported. But that is far from acceptable in 2022 when it will take 15 billion bushels of corn to meet the 2.5 billion bushel export demand.
Of course, Champaign, Vermilion, and Douglas County farmers say Mother Nature was not kind to them this year, and rains never came. So, while 150 bushels per acre is going to make it hard to pay for fertilizer for the 2023 crop, they did the best that the weather allowed. And ironically 150 bushels may be a bumper crop in another part of the world where weather is usually not an issue.
Not everyone may have followed what has been happening in Europe. International news sources have frequently reported record heat of more than 100℉ across much of Europe this summer. But along with that has also been a shortage of precipitation. France is a major international corn producer and in the past month over 90% of that nation has had less than 25% of typical moisture.
The Matif grain exchange in Paris reports corn prices are at record high levels, primarily because farmers are not selling. It is likely that corn sales have diminished, not because farmers are looking for higher prices, but more so because they may not have any corn to sell.
France’s corn crop probably will drop 19% this year because of the hot, dry weather, the Agriculture Ministry said Friday. The crisis is “a tragedy for our farmers, our ecosystems and for biodiversity,” according to the prime minister’s statement. Weather forecasts suggest the drought could last another two weeks and become “even more concerning,” officials said. The country just had its driest July in decades.
Three-quarters of Romania, Europe’s biggest producer, is affected by drought of varying severity. Farmers in parts of eastern Germany could lose their entire crop.
And what is happening with great irony, is that the first shiploads of corn coming from Ukrainian ports that have been blocked by Russia are headed for ports in the European Union. Instead of hauling wheat across the mine-laden Black Sea to African and Middle Eastern ports where millions of people are reported starving because of the Russian invasion, Ukrainian corn is headed to England and Ireland.
Other ships are hauling sunflower meal to China and sunflower oil to Italy. And there is some corn headed for Turkey. But there are no reports of grain headed to Middle Eastern or African ports. It is likely a case of what nations that have the most money are getting the early grain shipments.
Those farmers in east central Illinois, where drought has been steady throughout the growing season, continue to hope for rain that will fill out corn kernels and soybean pods, and will have to depend on Ukrainian farmers to fill the export demand. Crop insurance indemnities will be their lifeline to 2023.