According to today's USDA Grain Transportation Report, on March 31, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) published its latest Grain Stocks report. As of March 1, total U.S. grain stocks were 10.3 billion bushels (bbu). This was down 7 percent from last year and down 14 percent from the prior 5-year average for March.
Total disappearance—the difference in grain stocks from December 1, 2022 to March 1, 2023—was 5.2 bbu, which was down 6 percent from the previous year and nearly even with the 5-year average. Disappearance is a proxy for transportation demand because all grain that leaves storage must enter the transportation system.
Over the same period (December 1 to March 1), rail carloads of grain were 2 percent above the 5-year average, while barged grain movements were 13 percent below the 5-year average. The flatness of disappearance and rise in rail volumes—which exceeded the decline in barge volumes—suggest that truck movements were below the prior 5-year average. (Direct data for truck movements are unavailable and must be inferred from rail and barge movements.) Compared to the 5-year average, disappearance of corn was down 4 percent; wheat, down 7 percent; and soybeans, up 18 percent.