We planted all the corn we could in 2020. Planting conditions this spring were as good as imaginable in most areas from the far northern states.
We were headed for a record crop. USDA projected a 2020 crop of nearly 16 billion bushels of corn and more than 4 billion bushels of soybeans. The most recent USDA estimate had 83% GTE on corn, the highest ever for that time of year.
Then the weather started throwing curve balls at us. Acres in the north didn’t get planted. Drought has developed in some areas of the Corn Belt.
This started over the Eastern Corn Belt, with some areas entering the third stage of drought development (D2 – Severe Drought.) It’s not certain we’re going to see a record crop.
If we don’t get rain, that 83% GTE number will drop like a stone. Recently, a significant area of D2 has developed over central and western Iowa.
In the parts of the Corn Belt that remain dry and have above-normal heat, crop maturity will advance quickly. That could result in an early harvest.
After the 2020 crop is harvested, the general thinking was that there would be 800 million bushels without a home – that is, unsold when all the good-quality storage capacity has been taken up.
Exports do little to reduce that number, since those bushels must move to a port first, and they generally are scheduled for shipment during a specific month or portion of a month. Increased feed and ethanol usage does more to reduce that number.
However, if yields end up being reduced by harvest. that figure also will come down.
Reprinted from Grain Journal July/August 2020 Issue