Rains in major soybean-growing regions are delaying soybean harvests, but are helping the development of second-crop corn crops, putting pressure on quotes.
According to AgRural data, soybeans were harvested on 74% of the area in Brazil as of March 28 (76% last year), although the pace of harvesting has recently been ahead of last year. Corn of the first harvest was collected on 43% of the area, and corn of the second harvest was sown on 96.8% of the area.
Brazilian analyst Luis Fernando Gutierrez Roque estimates the soybean harvest in the country at 148.6 million tons, which is significantly lower than the first forecasts of 160 million tons. Agroconsult Agency, thanks to the abundant rainfall in February and March, raised the forecast for soybean production in Brazil in 2023/24 MR from 152.2 to 156.5 million tons, while the USDA estimates it at 155 million tons.
“The October-December rainfall deficit in northern and central Brazil has worsened the harvest prospects, especially in the state of Mato Grosso. At the same time, soybean production is recovering in Rio Grande do Sul. The decrease in soybean prices will soon stop, and there is a possibility of their recovery," the analyst believes.
According to the USDA's quarterly reports, in the U.S. in 2024 the area planted to soybeans will increase from last year from 83.6 to 86.51 million acres, while stocks as of March 1 increased from 45.86 to 50.2 million tons.
The export of soybeans from the U.S. in the current season amounted to only 37 million tons, which is 18.7% lower than last year's pace and puts pressure on prices.
The volume of soybean processing in the USA in February decreased compared to January by 0.6% from 5.31 to 5.28 million tons and became lower than analysts expected.
Under the pressure of the listed factors, May soybean futures in Chicago fell by 1.3% to $435.7/t in two sessions (-2% for the week).
In Ukraine, soybean prices in the ports of the Danube and the Black Sea remain at a low level of $365-405/ton, while hryvnia prices have reached UAH 17,500-18,000/ton against the background of the rising dollar exchange rate. Processors compete with exporters and offer UAH 16,500-17,000/ton with delivery to the factory.