This is the summary from the International Grains Council's July 23 Grain Market Report:
The forecast for world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2020/21 is lowered by 13m t m/m (month-on-month), to 2,225m, mainly on downgrades for wheat (mostly USA, EU, and Russia) and maize (mostly USA).
The outlook for consumption is broadly unchanged, as small upward adjustments for food and industrial uses are balanced by a reduced figure for feeding.
An increase in estimated opening stocks only partly compensates for lower new season supplies, with the world end-2020/21 carryover placed 10m t down m/m, at 625m, only a modest expansion y/y (year-on-year).
Most of the m/m cut in the global all-grains stocks forecast reflects a lower figure for the US maize carryout given the smaller than previously anticipated harvest.
The world trade (Jul/Jun) projection is lifted by 1m t m/m, on upgrades for wheat and maize shipments.
Soybean Outlook Rises
Reflecting bigger than expected southern hemisphere exports, the Council’s outlook for global soyabean trade (Oct/Sep) in 2019/20 is lifted by 3m t, to 158m, a y/y gain of 4%. Largely tied to an upgrade for Brazil, world output in 2020/21 is projected marginally higher m/m, at 365m t, an 8% y/y expansion.
Taking account of a higher figure for carry-ins, the net increase in supplies is channelled to increased outlooks for consumption and ending stocks.
Global import demand is seen slightly higher m/m, at 161m t, a y/y gain of 3m.
Global rice supply and demand in 2019/20 is seen little-changed from before, with end-season carryovers edging up to a new record.
The outlook for production in 2020/21 is maintained at a peak of 505m t, but a higher figure for carry-in stocks lifts total supplies slightly.
And with the Council’s projection for consumption cut from before, carryovers are placed 2m t higher m/m, at 182m (+5m y/y). Trade in 2021 (Jan/Dec) is raised marginally, to 45m t, a gain of 5% y/y.
With increased prices for all the components other than rice, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) strengthened by 3% m/m.
To view the complete report, click here.