USDA WASDE (Sept. 10): Wheat Supplies, Ending Stocks Reduced; Corn Supplies Up, Lower Oilseeds Crush Forecast

Washington, DC — The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this month is for reduced supplies, slightly higher domestic use, unchanged exports, and decreased ending stocks, according to the September USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report on Sept. 10.

Supplies are reduced as imports are lowered 10 million bushels to 135 million on the import pace. Food use is raised 2 million bushels to 964 million, reflecting an upward revision of 2020/21 food use.

The global wheat outlook for 2021/22 is for increased supplies, higher consumption, more trade, and higher ending stocks.

This month’s 2021/22 U.S. corn outlook is for larger supplies, increased feed and residual use, greater exports, and higher ending stocks.

Projected beginning stocks for 2021/22 are 70 million bushels higher based on a lower use forecast for 2020/21, with reductions in corn used for ethanol and exports.

Corn production for 2021/22 is forecast at 15.0 billion bushels, up 246 million from last month on increases to harvested area and yield.

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The national average yield is forecast at 176.3 bushels per acre, up 1.7 bushels, while harvested area for grain is forecast at 85.1 million acres, up 0.6 million.

Total U.S. corn use for 2021/22 is up 150 million bushels to 14.8 billion. Feed and residual use is raised 75 million bushels based mostly on a larger crop and lower expected prices. Exports for 2021/22 are up 75 million bushels to 2.5 billion.

With supply rising more than use, ending stocks are increased 166 million bushels to 1.4 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 30 cents to $5.45 per bushel.

This month’s 2021/22 foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, greater trade, and increased stocks relative to last month.

U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2021/22 include higher beginning stocks, production, exports, ending stocks, and lower crush.

Higher beginning stocks reflect a lower crush forecast for 2020/21. Soybean production is projected at 4.4 billion bushels, up 35 million with lower harvested area more than offset by a higher yield forecast of 50.6 bushels per acre.

Harvested area is down 0.3 million from the August forecast. Soybean crush is reduced 25 million bushels reflecting a lower forecast for domestic soybean meal disappearance.

The soybean export forecast is raised 35 million bushels on increased supplies and lower prices. Ending stocks are projected at 185 million bushels, up 30 million from last month.

The 2021/22 foreign oilseed supply and demand forecasts include higher beginning stocks and lower production, exports, and crush.

Lower canola supplies for Canada leads to lower exports of the oilseed and products to the EU, China, and the United States.

To read the full report, click here.

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