El Niño continued to drive exceptional heat and dryness in the Central-West region of Brazil through the middle of December 2023. Meanwhile, southern Brazil was in much better shape with ample rainfall.
Fortunes remain unchanged in South America through mid-December with hot and dry weather in the Central-West region with wetter weather in the South. Very hot weather combined with very dry conditions in the second full week of Dec. 2023 worsened the situation for crops. This was the hottest and driest second full week of December in 30-plus years for Mato Grosso, according to data from WeatherTrends360. Replanting of some soybean crops will be necessary with delays in planting likely to impact the second corn crop.
Meanwhile, temperatures were cooler in southern Brazil, although ticking up later in the week. Precipitation was, once again, more plentiful and widespread in the South. The split in wet weather in southern Brazil and drier weather farther north is being largely driven by El Niño, which is expected to persist into the first part of 2024.
The heat and dryness continue into the week-ending Dec. 23rd for the Center-West region of Brazil. There is a chance that temperatures will relax later in the week as the chance for precipitation increases. According to WeatherTrends360, this is forecast to be one of the hottest third weeks of December in 30-plus years for Mato Grosso with precipitation expected to trend closer to normal for the state overall.
The outlook for the rest of the month into the new year remains guarded as El Niño persists. We’re firmly in the monsoon season for states like Mato Grosso, but the replenishing monsoon rains have yet to materialize. In the first half of Dec. 2023, Mato Grosso has seen only about 50% of their normal rainfall for this time of year. Consistent rainfall is needed to recharge soil moisture but even if rains returned, the damage has already been done for some crops.
By Krissy Klinger